On November 8, 2016, millions of Americans cast their ballot with the confident assumption Hillary Clinton would be the next president.
She had maintained a reasonably consistent polling lead for most of the campaign, and there was little to suggest an upset.
But by the end of the night, Donald Trump was giving a victory speech off the cuff, because his staff had only written a concession.
Hillary Clinton did not appear until the next day, because her team had only prepared an acceptance speech.
Mr Trump had won thanks to a remarkable set of circumstances and a bizarre election system. Ms Clinton had won nearly three million more votes. But Mr Trump had got over the line thanks to a lead of only tens of thousands of votes in three crucial states.
Four years later, and the polls are showing now-President Trump losing in a landslide to Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
But nobody in America believes it.
Were the polls wrong?
The polling industry has been dealt a serious blow in the past few years, with accusations they were wrong on the Brexit referendum, the 2016 US election and last year's Australian election.
But polling, like weather forecasting, can only be so precise. It is, after all, using scientific methods to try and predict the future.
Polling in the Australian election last year was remarkably consistent, showing Bill Shorten leading Scott Morrison by 51-49.
The lead seemed solid enough for Sportsbet to pay out for Labor-backing punters early.
And on election day, Morrison ended up winning by two percent.
The two-point difference was seen as a black mark on the polling industry at large, but predicting the future can never be perfect.
Especially since the people who swing close elections are the ones who make up their minds when they are standing in the queue to vote.
That's what happened in Australia last year, and in America in 2016.
The polls weren't even that far off in the Trump-Clinton election. It's just that everybody assumed a three-point margin would mean Ms Clinton would win.
Nobody is so confident this time around.
If the polls are off this time by as much as 2016, Joe Biden is set for the biggest landslide win in a generation.
In recent weeks Mr Trump has been trailing in nationwide polls by double-digits.
And in statewide polls released this week, Mr Trump is behind not only in swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, but in the Republican base states of Texas, Georgia and Arizona.
The polling has inspired Mr Biden to start advertising in Texas, making him the first Democratic candidate to make a play in the massive state since Bill Clinton in 1992.
As a result, Mr Trump has to compete on many fronts. If he wins every state he won last time, but loses Texas, Mr Biden will become president.
The basement strategy
Much of the Republican Party's criticism of Mr Biden comes from his campaign strategy.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, Mr Biden has rarely been seen in public.
Instead, he has been largely in isolation, making videos and doing TV interviews from his basement. He has not held a press conference in months.
But Mr Biden has shown little inclination to change his strategy for a very simple reason – it's working.
Mr Biden has a long-running habit of committing gaffes on the campaign trail, losing his train of thought while speaking or putting his foot in his mouth during conversations.
But staying in his basement suits him well politically speaking. Most Americans are appreciating a political leader who is doing the responsible thing with regards to the coronavirus pandemic.
The base strategy
No president in modern history has attracted as dedicated a supporter base as Donald Trump.
They sport red hats bearing his "Make America Great Again" slogan. They pack out his rallies and cheer his name. They vote out Republicans who are insufficiently supportive of him.
And Mr Trump has been focusing his campaign on issues important to them: protecting Confederate statues, supporting them not wearing masks in public, supporting police against criminal justice reform demonstrators.
But it is not a winning strategy, as polling bears out. The American people want Confederate statues taken down. They want mandatory mask use, and they want criminal justice reform.
The critical demographic
The base voters are not what handed Mr Trump his election win in 2016.
Instead it was voters who distrusted him, but disliked Ms Clinton a lot more.
Among voters who disliked both candidates, Mr Trump won in a landslide.
But the opposite is true this time around.
Among voters who don't like either Mr Trump or Mr Biden, the latter is winning comfortably.
Swing voters think Joe Biden is old, uninspiring and moderate.
Swing voters thought Hillary Clinton was corrupt, extreme and evil.
The Trump campaign is doing their utmost to villainise Mr Biden.
But it's hard to make a polarising figure of someone so boring.
And after four years of angry tweets, political turmoil, riots, recession and pandemic, it seems voters want somebody boring in charge.
Source: 9News https://www.9news.com.au/world/joe-biden-is-heading-to-a-landslide-win-against-donald-trump-but-no-one-believes-it/9cf54e96-2bce-4e4e-a65e-76d19e658971